What this is
What is a skills gap forecast?
What is a skills gap forecast?
A forward-looking assessment of where competency will be short in the coming year, built from drivers such as expected retirements, turnover, growth and new equipment. It compares who is currently qualified against who will be required, and produces a gap with an owner and a start date rather than a warning nobody is attached to.
How is a skills gap forecast different from a competency matrix?
The competency matrix records who is qualified in what, today. The forecast takes that record and projects it forward against known changes, asking not who is qualified now but who will still be qualified, and in what numbers, twelve months from now.
Who should prepare a skills gap forecast?
The training lead, working with HR, because the drivers that matter most are people data: retirement intentions, turnover trends and headcount plans, which sit with HR rather than with training records alone.
Scope
When is a skills gap forecast required?
This forecast is one step in a larger training programme, and it looks forward from known drivers rather than recording what has already happened, which is the job of the competency matrix and the training records beneath it.
Use this template when
- The annual forecast cycle for the site or workspace has come round
- A material change to headcount, growth plans or equipment has occurred since the last forecast
- The competency matrix or turnover data suggests a critical skill is concentrated in very few people
- A cross training or recruitment plan needs a documented basis for its priorities and budget
- A regulatory change is known to be coming that will require new competency
Do not use it for
- Training Effectiveness Evaluation, which evaluates whether training already delivered changed anything, not what competency will be needed next
- E-Learning Completion Record, which records completion of a specific online module, not a workforce-level projection
- Training Material Review, which reviews whether existing course content is current, not whether the workforce has enough people trained in it
- A single vacancy or resignation, which is a recruitment matter unless it exposes a single point of failure the forecast should have already flagged
- Anything outside KnowTrain, which belongs in the workspace that owns that process
Compliance mapping
Which ISO 45001 cl.7.2 requirements does this satisfy?
ISO 45001 cl.7.2 requires the organisation to determine the competence necessary for roles affecting OH&S performance, and to take action to acquire it. A forecast is how that requirement is met ahead of the gap rather than in response to it, and it touches management of change and management review as much as it touches training.
| Clause | Requirement | Where it lands |
|---|---|---|
| ISO 45001 cl.7.2(a) | Determine the competence necessary for persons whose work affects OH&S performance | Gaps forecast |
| ISO 45001 cl.8.1.3 | Establish a process for the implementation and control of planned changes that impact OH&S performance | Drivers of change |
| ISO 45001 cl.7.2(c) | Take actions to acquire and evaluate the effectiveness of the necessary competence | Gaps forecast |
| ISO 45001 cl.9.3 | Management review to consider adequacy of resources and needs for change to the OH&S management system | Summary |
| ISO 45001 cl.7.5.3 | Documented information available, suitable and adequately protected, with changes controlled | Related records |
| ISO 45001 cl.5.3 | Roles, responsibilities and authorities assigned and communicated within the organisation | Header |
| ISO 45001 cl.7.2(d) | Retain documented information as evidence of competence and of actions taken | Summary |
What it does not cover
- Competency matrix, which records who is qualified in what today, and is the input the forecast is built from rather than a substitute for it.
- Recruitment plan, which covers headcount and role requirements generally, not the specific competencies at risk of falling short.
- Succession plan for management roles, which is a distinct process usually owned outside the training function.
- Training effectiveness evaluation, which looks backward at whether delivered training worked, not forward at what competency will be needed.
- Cross training record itself, which documents the training once it is delivered, and belongs to the action the forecast raised rather than the forecast.
Global
Skills Gap Forecast requirements by country
No jurisdiction names a skills gap forecast as a legal instrument. The duty is inferred from broader competence obligations, and a forecast is best understood as the practical evidence that an organisation is managing competence proactively rather than only when a gap has already become a shortage.
OSH Act General Duty Clause; standard-specific training requirements
No general requirement to forecast future competency. Standard-specific rules require named training but do not require projecting who will hold it.
A forecast is the practical way an employer demonstrates it anticipated a recognised gap rather than discovered it after the fact.
Management of Health and Safety at Work Regulations 1999, reg.13
Requires training that takes account of capability, adapted to reflect new or changed risks, without prescribing forward planning.
A forecast that flags a coming shortfall, and a plan that never acts on it, leaves the same gap reg.13 is aimed at closing, just predicted rather than accidental.
ISO 45001 cl.7.2
Requires the organisation to determine necessary competence and take action to acquire it, with evidence retained.
Certification auditors look for evidence that competence needs were anticipated, not only that a course exists for each one after the fact.
How to complete it
How to complete a skills gap forecast, step by step
Most forecasts are built from a headcount spreadsheet and a turnover percentage. The parts that determine whether the forecast catches the gap that actually matters are the ones a spreadsheet does not prompt for.
A gap is defined at the level of a specific competency, currently qualified against required in twelve months, not at the level of total site headcount. Two sites can carry identical headcount forecasts and have completely different competency risk depending on which specific skills the leavers hold.
A competency held by one person is a gap even when the numbers look adequate, because that person's absence, planned or not, removes the whole capability at once. Treating this as its own flag, rather than folding it into a general ratio, is what makes the forecast catch the risk that actually causes a stoppage.
A competency that takes months to build cannot be started the week a resignation is handed in. Sorting gaps by how long they take to close, rather than by how urgent they currently feel, is what turns the forecast into a schedule rather than a list of worries.
A gap recorded without an owner and a start date is a prediction, and predictions do not train anyone. The action planned, cross training, recruitment, contract cover or accepting the risk, is the point where the forecast becomes a decision rather than an observation.
What auditors find
Most common skills gap forecast findings
Skills gap forecast findings are rarely about the arithmetic being wrong. They are almost always about a real gap being visible in the data and nobody having attached an owner or a start date to it.
| Finding | Clause | What fixes it |
|---|---|---|
| Forecast built from total headcount rather than named competencies. | ISO 45001 cl.7.2(a) | Rebuild the forecast per competency: currently qualified against required in twelve months for each one. |
| Single points of failure not identified separately from the general gap figure. | ISO 45001 cl.7.2(a) | Flag every competency held by only one person, regardless of whether the headcount ratio looks adequate. |
| A gap is recorded but carries no owner or start date. | ISO 45001 cl.7.2(c) | Require an action, an owner and a start date at the point a material gap is entered. |
| Lead time to train is not considered when setting the start date for action. | ISO 45001 cl.7.2(c) | Set the start date from the competency's actual training lead time, working backward from when it is required. |
| Known drivers, growth, new equipment, regulatory change, omitted from the forecast basis. | ISO 45001 cl.8.1.3 | Confirm each driver field is completed from current business and change plans before the forecast is signed off. |
| Forecast never reaches management review or the training budget process. | ISO 45001 cl.9.3 | Route the forecast summary into management review as a standing input, not an optional attachment. |
Case in point
Case in point: the gap that was visible a year before it hurt
A site ran a single specialist competency for calibrating measurement equipment central to product release, held by one technician who had done the job for eleven years. The competency matrix showed this plainly: one person, one qualification, no backup. No forecast had been built from it, because the matrix was treated as a record of who was qualified, not an input to a forward-looking plan.
The technician resigned with four weeks' notice. Cross training a replacement took five months, so product release was either delayed or run without in-house calibration for most of that time, at cost and under a compliance risk nobody had planned for. A forecast run a year earlier would have flagged the single point of failure and the five-month lead time as a mismatch worth acting on well before any resignation was on the table.
The template
The template, field by field
The form exactly as it installs. Every field, option, score and conditional rule is editable, and the links to other templates come with it.
5 sections
- Reference
- TRN-086
- Archetype
- Review
- Record ID
- SGF-2026-000
- Scoring
- Forecast gaps covered
- Direction
- High is good
- Singleton
- No
- Basis
- ISO 45001 cl.7.2
- Links
- Links Competency matrix, Cross training
- Tags
- Training, Planning
- Sections
- 5
- Fields
- 40
- Follow up fields
- 3
- Repeating sections
- 1
- Links out
- 3
Header
10 fieldsForecast ID*
Auto sequence. Format SGF-2026-000.
The record's own ID. Other templates point at this value.
Status*
Drives who this goes to next.
- Planned2 pts
- In progress2 pts
- Complete3 pts
- Deferred0 pts
- Open0 pts
- Closed3 pts
- Overdue0 pts
Date and Time*
Completed By*
Site*
Site ID*
Format SITE-000.
Links to FDN-001 Site ID
Cross Training Started Too Late
Once somebody has resigned, there is rarely time to build the replacement. This forecast exists so the gap is visible a year out.
Period Forecast*
Prepared By*
Areas Covered*
Drivers of change
6 fieldsRetirements Expected*
Turnover Rate Percent*
Growth Or New Lines*
- No3 pts
- Yes1 pt
New Equipment Coming*
- No3 pts
- Yes1 pt
Regulatory Change Requiring Training*
- No3 pts
- Yes1 pt
Shift Pattern Change
- No3 pts
- Yes1 pt
Gaps forecast
Repeats9 fieldsCompetency*
Currently Qualified*
Required In 12 Months*
Forecast Gap*
Single Point Of Failure*
One person holding a critical competency is the gap that stops production when they are ill.
- No3 pts
- Yes0 pts
Lead Time To Train*
- Weeks3 pts
- Months1 pt
- Over a year0 pts
Action Planned*
Owner*
Start By*
Related records
1 fieldCompetency Matrix ID
The matrix the forecast was built from.
Links to TRN-020 Matrix ID
Summary
14 fieldsTotal Forecast Gaps*
Single Points Of Failure*
Gaps With A Plan*
Budget Requested
Feeds Management Review*
Next Forecast Due*
Action Required*
Raise the action record, then enter its reference here.
- No2 pts
- Yes0 pts
Priority
- High0 pts
- Medium1 pt
- Low3 pts
CAPA ID
Format CAPA-2026-00000.
Links to FDN-014 CAPA ID
Action Owner
Training Lead*
Signature*
HR*
Second Signature*
TRN-086 · record IDs look like SGF-2026-000 · Links Competency matrix, Cross training
Open in KnowellaRun it with agents
From a document you fill in to a programme that runs itself
The forecast itself is an analysis exercise built from data that already exists elsewhere. What actually fails is the connection between that analysis and the people who can act on it before the gap becomes a shortage.
Holds the forecast against the competency matrix and cross training records, and tracks whether an action planned against a gap actually started by its date.
Watches HR data for the drivers that should trigger an update, unplanned resignations, restructures, new equipment orders, and raises the forecast rather than waiting for the annual date.
Flags where a forecast gap overlaps a safety-critical competency, so a training shortfall is visible as a risk to the operation, not only to the training budget.
This template lives in KnowTrain — training and credentials. Induction, competency, toolbox talks, refreshers and expiry tracking.
Meet KnowTrain→Glossary
Skills Gap Forecast definitions and key terms
- Single point of failure
- A competency held by only one person, so that person's absence removes the capability entirely regardless of how the general headcount numbers look.
- Lead time to train
- How long it takes to bring a person to competent in a given skill, used to set how far ahead of a known gap the action must start.
- Forecast gap
- The difference between how many people are currently qualified in a competency and how many will be required within the forecast period.
- Driver of change
- A known factor, retirement, turnover, growth, new equipment or regulatory change, that will alter competency demand within the forecast period.
- Cross training
- Training an existing worker in a competency they do not currently hold, most often used to close a single point of failure or a forecast gap ahead of need.
FAQ
Frequently asked questions about skills gap forecast
What is a skills gap forecast, and what does it depend on?+
A forward-looking projection of where competency will fall short over the coming year, built from known drivers such as expected retirements, turnover, growth and new equipment. It depends on the competency matrix as its starting point and on HR data for the drivers, which is why it is prepared jointly by the training lead and HR rather than by training alone.
Why does a single point of failure get its own flag?+
Because a competency held by one person carries a risk that a general headcount ratio hides. The numbers can look adequate on paper while one unplanned absence removes the whole capability, and that risk needs to be visible on its own rather than averaged away inside a wider total.
How far ahead should the forecast look?+
Twelve months is the standard period, chosen because it is usually long enough to cover a training lead time that runs to months rather than weeks, while still being short enough that the underlying drivers, retirement dates, growth plans, equipment delivery, are known with reasonable confidence.
What should happen once a gap is identified?+
It should carry a chosen action, cross training, recruitment, contract cover, automation or a documented decision to accept the risk, with an owner and a start date set from the competency's actual lead time to train. A gap without those is a finding, not yet a plan.
How does this connect to the training budget?+
The forecast is meant to be the evidence base for training budget requests tied to real projected need, rather than a budget built from habit or last year's figure. A forecast that never reaches the budget process has done the analysis and then discarded the reason for doing it.
How often is a skills gap forecast expected?+
Yearly is the standard cycle, but a material change, a restructure, an unexpected wave of resignations, a new production line, should prompt an update rather than waiting for the next scheduled cycle, because the drivers behind the forecast can shift faster than an annual calendar.
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Written and reviewed by
Siddarth Singh
Founder & Chief Executive Officer, Knowella
Certified Safety Professional and industrial and systems engineer with more than a decade inside food supply chain, freight and manufacturing operations. This page was written against the current text of the standards it cites, not against secondary summaries of them.
- Certified Safety Professional (CSP), Board of Certified Safety Professionals
- MBA, University of Chicago Booth School of Business
- MS and BS, The Ohio State University, Industrial and Systems Engineering
- Six Sigma Black Belt
Sources and last review. Reviewed 16 August 2026 against:
- ISO 45001:2018 clauses 7.2, 8.1.3 and 9.3
- Management of Health and Safety at Work Regulations 1999, regulation 13 (GB)
- ANSI/ASSP Z490.1, Criteria for Accepted Practices in Safety, Health and Environmental Training
This page is general guidance, not legal advice. Confirm requirements with your jurisdiction’s regulator.